Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 according to data released by the Labor Department earlier this morning. It is very important to note that this data will have no bearing on tomorrow's much more important September nonfarm payroll figures -- because the weekly data fell outside of the survey period for the monthly headcount.
The second straight week of seasonal declines in the number of workers standing in line to file first-time jobless benefits pushed them further away from the nine-month high of 504,000 set in August. Weekly claims are now in the upper end of the 400,000 - 450,000 range that analysts normally associate with labor market stability. The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped by 48,000 while the number of people receiving emergency jobless benefit extensions from the government increased by 157,000+.
Most mortgage investors have already set their hedges in front of tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the September nonfarm payroll figures and have now moved into "wait-and-see" mode. While most believe the private sector produced a net gain of some 80,000 jobs last month -- state and federal governments likely experienced a net job loss of almost the same number. If this assessment proves accurate, selling pressure in the mortgage market will likely develop as traders scramble to unwind losing bets that net job loss in September would be much higher. It will likely take a net job loss of 25,000 and/or a jump in the national jobless rate to 9.8% or more to trigger a notable rally to yet lower rates and higher prices. Heads up.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment