The mortgage market took-one-on-the-chin this morning when the Labor Department reported prices paid at the farm and factory gate jumped more than double the 0.8% gain most analysts had been expecting.


The headline November producer price index was up a surprising 1.8% while the core index (a value stripped of the more volatile food and energy components) posted a larger-than-expected 0.5% gain. The lion's share of the surge in the November producer price index figures was created by a strong uptick in energy costs and new model year price increase for light trucks. Crude oil prices hit $82 a barrel during the survey period for this data but has since retreated sharply - trading around $70 a barrel. Near record excess manufacturing capacity and a jobless rate that is projected to average 10% for much of 2010 will likely prevent suppliers from passing on these increasing costs through at least the end of the first-quarter of the New Year.



Mortgage investors are taking a cautious "wait-and-see" approach in front of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2009. The text and tone of the Committee's post-meeting statement (scheduled for release at 2:15 p.m. ET, Wednesday, December 16th) will contribute significantly to the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates up and through the Christmas break.



Any hint that the central bank is considering backing off of its asset purchase programs, or perhaps mulling an increase in its benchmark short-term interest rates will likely send mortgage interest rates notably higher. While it is worth noting this risk exists - the probability of such an outcome is exceptionally low.



Even considering today's outsized gains in the November producer price index numbers -- the underlying pace of inflation remains by all measures comfortably within the Fed's stated "comfort zone." From a historical perspective it is worth noting there has never been a time that the Fed has begun to tighten short-term interest rates as unemployment rates were rising and inflation pressures remained benign.


As things now stand, the central bank will probably guardedly acknowledge the recent improvement in the nation's economic backdrop -- but will clearly renew its commitment to keep its benchmark short-term interest rates near zero for an "extended period." If this assessment proves accurate, look for this event to have little, if any significant influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.