Trading activity in the mortgage market is extremely subdued this morning as investors await the results of Uncle Sam’s record setting $40 billion auction of 3-year notes. The auction will conclude at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Demand will likely be solid for this offering as investors can earn an extra 0.50 percent point in yield as compared to the 2-year notes -- in exchange for taking only slightly more interest rate risk. The Fed’s continuing pledge to keep their benchmark short-term rates near zero and a very weak October payroll report will probably make this offer hard to resist for domestic and foreign investors alike.
Uncle Sam will return to the credit markets tomorrow afternoon looking to borrow $25 billion in 10-year notes and he’ll auction off a $16 billion stack of 30-year bonds on Thursday afternoon.
Even though demand for government debt has remained strong this year it is unclear whether strong results from today’s 3-year note auction will carry over to the two other auctions scheduled for this week. The Federal Reserve’s $300 billion Treasury purchase program ended last month, removing one element of demand from the bidding process. This week’s longer-dated auctions will be the first without direct participation from the Fed.
Everybody will be watching intently to see if demand steps up on its own. If so, interest rates in general -- and mortgage interest rates in particular --will likely remain little changed. On the other hand, if private demand is weak -- mortgage investors will almost certainly register their displeasure by pushing mortgage interest rates noticeably higher.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment