Friday, August 26, 2011

Many market participants had hoped Mr. Bernanke would serve up the financial equivalent of a juicy steak hot-off-of-the-grill this morning -- but instead he offered nothing more than a bowl of lukewarm Cream-of-Wheat.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling further immediate action from the central bank to boost economic growth during his much hyped keynote speech at a global economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming earlier this morning. His position disappointed many and matched the minority of market analysts' expectations.



The furthest Mr. Bernanke chose to go out on a professional limb was to solemnly pronounce that he believes reducing the record high level of workers who have been unemployed for six months or more would help achieve stronger U.S. economic growth. The best Mr. Bernanke had to offer market participants was his commitment to talk about additional ideas to stimulate economic growth with the other members of the Open Market Committee at an extended two-day gathering beginning on Tuesday, September 20th. The whole thing was decidedly mortgage interest rate neutral.



In terms of economic news the Commerce Department reported earlier this morning the economy grew slower than previously thought during the second-quarter. Gross Domestic Product, a government guesstimate of the value of all the goods and services produced nationally, improved by 1.0% -- a downward revision to the government's first guess suggesting growth of 1.3%. The revision was generally in range of the performance level most mortgage investors had been anticipating rendering this report essentially "toothless" with respect to its impact on the current trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.



Looking ahead to the coming week several important economic reports will be featured starting with Monday's Personal Income and Spending data from July followed by Thursday's measure of activity in the manufacturing sector to be delivered in the form of the July Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing Index and culminating in Friday's August Nonfarm Payroll report.



The risk is that one or more of these reports prove stronger-than-expected - a condition should it occur - almost certain to cause mortgage investors to nudge interest rates higher. Heads up - this is definitely not time to get complacent with your pipeline risk management strategies. It will not take much in the way of an inflation spike or signs of an accelerating economic recovery to prompt an ugly change in your investors' rate sheets.



FYI: The mortgage market will operate on a normal schedule on Friday, September 2nd and will be closed on Monday, September 5th for the Labor Day Holiday.

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