TAX D-DAY!!!
Any discussion regarding this morning's initial jobless claims data and the March Industrial Production and Capacity utilization numbers will be a complete waste of your time.
The near-term trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates is now completely dependent on trading action in the stock markets. In order to move to yet lower levels mortgage interest rates will be almost entirely dependent on a boost from events -- rather than anything on the balance of this month's economic calendar.
From a technical perspective it appears that both the DOW and the NASDAQ are on the verge of staging a fairly sharp downward correction. Since Monday specualtion has been that the DOW will probably find it difficult to move much higher than 11,100 while the NASDAQ is likely to run-out-of-steam as it trades in the 2450 to 2470 range. The rally in NASDAQ has proven stronger than anticipated as that index has traded as high as 2517 (earlier this morning). The DOW has traded as high as 11135 (earlier this morning).
If this assessment proves accurate, a significant amount of the capital fleeing deteriorating conditions in the stock markets will almost certainly seek the safety of Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - a condition that will in-turn prove supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates.
Be very, very patient here and pay close attention to price target objectives. The potential for some rather wild price swings in the mortgage market over the course of the next couple of days is high.
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