The coming week's economic calendar doesn't offer much of substance for mortgage investors to chew-on during the coming four-day holiday shortened trading sessions. There are no scheduled government debt auctions and members of the Federal Open Market committee have entered their "period of silence" in front of their two-day meeting next week.
It is likely mortgage investors will take at least a passing glance at Thursday's December Leading Economic Index presented by the private Conference Board. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index is intended to forecast likely economic conditions three to nine months in the future. If, as expected, the index posts a gain of 0.7% or higher, it will have fully reversed the decline seen during the Great Recession - a condition that will almost certainly exert some upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.
With nothing else to capture their attention during the run-up to Thursday's release of the Leading Economic Index - look for mortgage investors to take their interest rate directional cues from trading activity in the stock markets. Rising stock prices will tend to drive mortgage interest rates higher -- while falling stock prices will tend to be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
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