It appears the mortgage market is poised to drift through the last trading day of October taking directional cues from trading activity in the stock markets. Lower stock prices will tend to support steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. In the off-chance stock prices rally - look for mortgage investors to push rate sheet prices lower.
This morning's report of September Personal Income and Spending fell almost exactly on values most economists had projected - rendering the whole thing essentially toothless with respect to its influence on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
Looking ahead to next week the release of the Fed's post-meeting statement on Wednesday afternoon and the October nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday morning will dominate the macro-economic calendar. There is a chance the Fed will tweak the language in their statement to open the door for a potential short-term rate hike somewhere down the road.
Most believe economic conditions are still too fragile for the Fed to run the risk of upsetting the credit market's apple cart. If the consensus view proves accurate, the Fed meeting will come and go without exerting much, if any direct influence on the direction of mortgage interest rates. On the other hand, if the Fed chooses to do a little wordsmithing - and investors interpret the change to indicate the Fed is considering moving away from their accommodative monetary policy stance -- expect market participants to register their displeasure by pushing interest rates higher and prices lower.
The only threat of higher mortgage interest rates in Friday's nonfarm payroll data will be if the numbers prove to be significantly stronger than market participants now anticipate. In my judgment it will take a headline payroll number that shows job losses of 150,000 or less and/or a national jobless rate of 9.7% or lower and/or an average work week of 33.0 hours or more. The likelihood that one or any combination of these values actually appears in the Labor Department report is very small.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Mortgage investors suffered a major "Maalox Moment" this morning when the government reported the economy grew at a significantly faster-pace than expected in the July through September period. The Commerce Department said their first estimate of Gross Domestic Product, a statistical measure of the value of all the goods and service produced in the country, showed a gain of 3.5%. The economic growth in the third-quarter of 2009 was the fastest since the third-quarter of 2007. The gain in third-quarter GDP was generally broad-based, with solid gains in consumer spending, exports and investment in home-construction.
It seems for the time being mortgage investors are simply glossing over the fact that the big gains in consumer spending and residential investment were largely driven by limited term government stimulus programs like "cash-for-clunkers" and the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
The latest gain in GDP growth stands in stark contrast to the 12 month period that ended in June 2009, a period when the economy turned in its worst performance in 70 years. The four consecutive quarterly GDP declines through the Q2 2009 marks the longest stretch of negative national economic growth since quarterly records began in 1947.
The question that bond traders and stock investors will be attempting to answer now has to do with the sustainability of economic growth. Was the outstanding third-quarter performance a "one-trick-pony," created by large amounts of government support - or was it another piece of evidence suggesting the Great Recession is coming to a close?
Some analysts point to the fact that if we strip out auto sales, production, and inventories, the economy grew at 1.9% last quarter - a very lethargic rate of growth at best. While I agree with the idea that modest growth is better than no growth at all - the likelihood of sustainable and meaningful economic growth is, in my judgment, still very much dependant on job growth. The consumer is the engine that drives more than 70% of our domestic economic activity -- and until the employment picture improves dramatically - the probabilities are high that the national economic growth prospects will remain anemic.
Speaking of employment -- a separate report from the Labor Department this morning showed the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 during the week ended October 24th. The still-elevated numbers of continuing claims (a measure of those drawing benefits after the initial week) and those claiming extended benefits and support from the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program paints nothing but a very dismal picture of current conditions in the labor market.
Uncle Sam is conducting the last of this week's scheduled four-part Treasury auctions. On the block today is a $31 billion stack of 7-year notes. Since March of this year the Fed has been a relatively strong buyer of these securities. That is the good news. The bad news is their $300 billion dollar direct purchase program draws to a close today. The Fed as already spent $298.063 billion of their total allocation -- and they will drop the last of it on Treasury securities maturing in the next 4- to 7-years before the end of the day.
Keep your fingers crossed that the bidding at today's auction remains aggressive without the support of the Fed direct purchases. The more aggressive the bidding is for the 7-year notes -- the better the prospects for steady mortgage interest rates. If today's 7-year note sale is a bust - look for mortgage interest rates to edge higher before the end of the day.
It seems for the time being mortgage investors are simply glossing over the fact that the big gains in consumer spending and residential investment were largely driven by limited term government stimulus programs like "cash-for-clunkers" and the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
The latest gain in GDP growth stands in stark contrast to the 12 month period that ended in June 2009, a period when the economy turned in its worst performance in 70 years. The four consecutive quarterly GDP declines through the Q2 2009 marks the longest stretch of negative national economic growth since quarterly records began in 1947.
The question that bond traders and stock investors will be attempting to answer now has to do with the sustainability of economic growth. Was the outstanding third-quarter performance a "one-trick-pony," created by large amounts of government support - or was it another piece of evidence suggesting the Great Recession is coming to a close?
Some analysts point to the fact that if we strip out auto sales, production, and inventories, the economy grew at 1.9% last quarter - a very lethargic rate of growth at best. While I agree with the idea that modest growth is better than no growth at all - the likelihood of sustainable and meaningful economic growth is, in my judgment, still very much dependant on job growth. The consumer is the engine that drives more than 70% of our domestic economic activity -- and until the employment picture improves dramatically - the probabilities are high that the national economic growth prospects will remain anemic.
Speaking of employment -- a separate report from the Labor Department this morning showed the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 during the week ended October 24th. The still-elevated numbers of continuing claims (a measure of those drawing benefits after the initial week) and those claiming extended benefits and support from the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program paints nothing but a very dismal picture of current conditions in the labor market.
Uncle Sam is conducting the last of this week's scheduled four-part Treasury auctions. On the block today is a $31 billion stack of 7-year notes. Since March of this year the Fed has been a relatively strong buyer of these securities. That is the good news. The bad news is their $300 billion dollar direct purchase program draws to a close today. The Fed as already spent $298.063 billion of their total allocation -- and they will drop the last of it on Treasury securities maturing in the next 4- to 7-years before the end of the day.
Keep your fingers crossed that the bidding at today's auction remains aggressive without the support of the Fed direct purchases. The more aggressive the bidding is for the 7-year notes -- the better the prospects for steady mortgage interest rates. If today's 7-year note sale is a bust - look for mortgage interest rates to edge higher before the end of the day.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
The mortgage market got off to a friendly start this morning as lower-than-expected September new home sales figures offset encouraging data from the manufacturing sector that came in the form of surprisingly solid September Durable Goods numbers.
In a separate report the Mortgage Bankers of America reported their index of seasonally adjusted mortgage applications (a value that includes requests for both purchase and refinance loans) slipped 12.3% lower during the week ended October 23rd. Purchase applications were down 5.2% and refinance applications declined 16.2%. During the reporting period the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.04%, down three basis-points from the prior week -- and down 122 basis-points from the year ago mark.
The mixed signal from the economy was enough to induce a round of selling in the stock markets. As capital leaves riskier asset classes like stocks - it is typically looking for a safe place in which to hang-out - and that is a condition that tends to make government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities shine as an attractive sanctuary for these money flows. The more money that flows into the credit markets - and particularly into mortgage-backed securities - the more supportive it becomes of the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
The timing of ramped-up selling pressure in the equity markets could not have come at a better time from a credit market perspective. Uncle Sam is conducting an auction today looking to borrow $41 billion in the form of 5-year notes. The more aggressive the bidding becomes for these securities -- the better the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. The first two legs of this week's Treasury auctions - Monday's $7 billion of 5-year inflation indexed securities and yesterday's $44 billion of 2-year notes - drew slightly better-than-expected demand. If today's 5-year note sale keeps the string alive this event's impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates will likely be very limited. In the off-chance today's 5-year note sale is a bust - look for mortgage interest rates to edge higher before the end of the day.
In a separate report the Mortgage Bankers of America reported their index of seasonally adjusted mortgage applications (a value that includes requests for both purchase and refinance loans) slipped 12.3% lower during the week ended October 23rd. Purchase applications were down 5.2% and refinance applications declined 16.2%. During the reporting period the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.04%, down three basis-points from the prior week -- and down 122 basis-points from the year ago mark.
The mixed signal from the economy was enough to induce a round of selling in the stock markets. As capital leaves riskier asset classes like stocks - it is typically looking for a safe place in which to hang-out - and that is a condition that tends to make government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities shine as an attractive sanctuary for these money flows. The more money that flows into the credit markets - and particularly into mortgage-backed securities - the more supportive it becomes of the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
The timing of ramped-up selling pressure in the equity markets could not have come at a better time from a credit market perspective. Uncle Sam is conducting an auction today looking to borrow $41 billion in the form of 5-year notes. The more aggressive the bidding becomes for these securities -- the better the prospects for steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. The first two legs of this week's Treasury auctions - Monday's $7 billion of 5-year inflation indexed securities and yesterday's $44 billion of 2-year notes - drew slightly better-than-expected demand. If today's 5-year note sale keeps the string alive this event's impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates will likely be very limited. In the off-chance today's 5-year note sale is a bust - look for mortgage interest rates to edge higher before the end of the day.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
The mortgage market is off to a friendly start today after the Conference Board, a private research group, said its barometer on consumer confidence slipped to 47.7 in October from a revised 53.4 in September.
Detail in this morning's report showed consumers' assessment of present conditions dropped to its lowest level since February 1985 while the number of people who said jobs are hard to get increased to a reading of 49.6 -- its highest level since 1983. Consumers are obviously "bummed" in a big way - reviving worries among market participants about the sustainability of the economic recovery. The folks on Main Street are obviously still very fearful about their ability to get and hold a job, which is a clear threat to spending - and by extension - to the nation's prospects for recovery from the Great Recession.
In the convoluted world of the mortgage market -- slumping economic activity tends to reduce the demand for capital - which in-turn tends to be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates. The growing likelihood of "Grinch-like" holiday sales may soon begin to take an increasingly large toll on stock valuations. If so, a significant amount of the capital fleeing these riskier asset classes will likely find its way into the "safe-harbor" of government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - and that's never a bad thing from a rate sheet perspective.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit market looking to borrow $44 billion in the form of 2-year notes today. The short-duration of these debt obligations -- together with the fact their yield is near its highest level in more than a month -- will likely combine to draw solid demand from global and domestic investors alike. Look for this event to have little, if any noticeable impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.
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Detail in this morning's report showed consumers' assessment of present conditions dropped to its lowest level since February 1985 while the number of people who said jobs are hard to get increased to a reading of 49.6 -- its highest level since 1983. Consumers are obviously "bummed" in a big way - reviving worries among market participants about the sustainability of the economic recovery. The folks on Main Street are obviously still very fearful about their ability to get and hold a job, which is a clear threat to spending - and by extension - to the nation's prospects for recovery from the Great Recession.
In the convoluted world of the mortgage market -- slumping economic activity tends to reduce the demand for capital - which in-turn tends to be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates. The growing likelihood of "Grinch-like" holiday sales may soon begin to take an increasingly large toll on stock valuations. If so, a significant amount of the capital fleeing these riskier asset classes will likely find its way into the "safe-harbor" of government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - and that's never a bad thing from a rate sheet perspective.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit market looking to borrow $44 billion in the form of 2-year notes today. The short-duration of these debt obligations -- together with the fact their yield is near its highest level in more than a month -- will likely combine to draw solid demand from global and domestic investors alike. Look for this event to have little, if any noticeable impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.
http://www.innerbanksliving.com/oriental_plantation.html
Monday, October 26, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
The mortgage market was under siege earlier this morning as stock market gains curbed the safe-haven appeal of government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. The last thing the credit markets need is a distracting influence as Uncle Sam prepares to borrow a record volume of $123 billion in a four-part auction this week.
The government's borrowing binge will kick-off today with $7 billion of 5-year inflation-indexed securities followed by tomorrow's $44 billion in the form of 2-year notes, Wednesday's $41 billion of 5-year note sale and concluding on Thursday with a $31 billion 7-year notes offering.
So far this year, domestic and foreign investor demand for these debt obligations has been high - despite lingering anxiety over a ballooning U.S. government budget deficit and its potential impact on the long-term credit-worthiness of the United States.
As we come into this week's record setting debt offering the credit markets have a couple of things going for it that could be supportive of the prospects for solid auction demand - a condition which also tends to be supportive of a least steady mortgage interest rates.
(1) The stock markets appear to be in the early phase of a mild downward correction. If the assessment proves correct this relatively shallow correction that will likely continue through the Thanksgiving break. Falling stock prices tend to spawn "flight-to-quality" buying sprees favoring safe haven assets like government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. There is absolutely no reason to believe a swoon in the stock markets would not create the same result this time around.
(2) The value of the dollar has taken a beating on foreign currency exchanges -- and believe it or not - that is a situation that may actually serve to ramp-up demand for U.S. government debt obligations - especially by overseas investors. Those investors choosing to buy dollar-denominated assets with other more strongly valued currencies will be acquiring Uncle Sam's highest-quality debt instruments at "blue-light-special" prices -- on a currency adjusted basis.
A soft dollar stands a very good change of greasing-the-skids for this week's barrage of Treasury auctions - a scenario that will likely prove to be at worst -- mortgage market neutral.
There is, of course, a second side to this coin. If domestic and foreign investors choose to stay on the sidelines this week for whatever reason - look for mortgage interest rates to move higher. While such an outcome is certainly possible - at this juncture it does not appear to be highly probable.
The government's borrowing binge will kick-off today with $7 billion of 5-year inflation-indexed securities followed by tomorrow's $44 billion in the form of 2-year notes, Wednesday's $41 billion of 5-year note sale and concluding on Thursday with a $31 billion 7-year notes offering.
So far this year, domestic and foreign investor demand for these debt obligations has been high - despite lingering anxiety over a ballooning U.S. government budget deficit and its potential impact on the long-term credit-worthiness of the United States.
As we come into this week's record setting debt offering the credit markets have a couple of things going for it that could be supportive of the prospects for solid auction demand - a condition which also tends to be supportive of a least steady mortgage interest rates.
(1) The stock markets appear to be in the early phase of a mild downward correction. If the assessment proves correct this relatively shallow correction that will likely continue through the Thanksgiving break. Falling stock prices tend to spawn "flight-to-quality" buying sprees favoring safe haven assets like government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities. There is absolutely no reason to believe a swoon in the stock markets would not create the same result this time around.
(2) The value of the dollar has taken a beating on foreign currency exchanges -- and believe it or not - that is a situation that may actually serve to ramp-up demand for U.S. government debt obligations - especially by overseas investors. Those investors choosing to buy dollar-denominated assets with other more strongly valued currencies will be acquiring Uncle Sam's highest-quality debt instruments at "blue-light-special" prices -- on a currency adjusted basis.
A soft dollar stands a very good change of greasing-the-skids for this week's barrage of Treasury auctions - a scenario that will likely prove to be at worst -- mortgage market neutral.
There is, of course, a second side to this coin. If domestic and foreign investors choose to stay on the sidelines this week for whatever reason - look for mortgage interest rates to move higher. While such an outcome is certainly possible - at this juncture it does not appear to be highly probable.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
As the week winds down mortgage investors are putting the final touches on their risk management strategies in front of next week's record setting deluge of government debt.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets looking to borrow a record volume of $123 billion in the form of two-, five-, and seven-year notes in tandem with a batch of 5-year inflation protected securities. The coming week's round of government borrowing handily beats the previous record of $115 billion set in July. S
o far this year, the massive amount of supply Uncle Sam has pumped into the credit markets has been absorbed without much problem -- simply because there is a lot of cash out there looking for a safe home. If trading action in the equity market is wobbly next week - it is likely these government debt obligations will be well bid -- causing them to exert little, if any upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. As always there is a flip-side to every coin, weak bidding at next week's government debt sale will almost certainly leach into the mortgage market -- producing higher rates and notably lower prices. At this juncture, there is reason to consider this latter scenario to be a low probability outcome.
Next week's schedule of macro-economic data will almost surely draw more than a passing glance from mortgage investors - particularly Thursday's first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (8:30 a.m. ET) and the core personal consumption and expenditure component of the September Income and Spending data to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. The majority of economists expect economic growth during the third-quarter accelerated at a brisk 3.3% pace. Mortgage investors have already priced-in that forecast as well expectations the core rate of inflation as measured by the September personal consumption and expenditure index did not exceed 0.2%. Should the actual numbers match or fall below these consensus forecast values - look for these economic reports to have little, if any noticeably impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
Earlier this morning the National Association of Realtors reported existing homes sales - including single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops - jumped 9.4% higher last month. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, "Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to take a trade and buy another home." The Association's data shows first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate set of data shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September. Mortgage investors largely discounted the big surge in September existing home sales - reasoning the trajectory of sales will slip notably lower in the fourth-quarter following the expiration of the first-time home-buyer program at the end of November.
Stock market investors are continuing to make strong bets that corporate earnings will continue to "surprise" to the high side of expectations. The earnings season is still very young - with the majority of companies still due to turn in their third-quarter financial performance report cards. If these remaining companies successfully follow the current pattern of posting better-than-expected earnings -- stock markets will likely find sufficient justification continue to rally at the expense of fractionally higher mortgage interest rates.
On the other hand, if the remaining companies fail to solidly beat current earnings expectations, their stock price will likely begin to fall. The larger the number of under-performing companies (as compared to analysts' expectations) the stronger the likelihood stock markets will roll-over into a heavy sell-off - a condition that will tend to be strongly supportive of steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets looking to borrow a record volume of $123 billion in the form of two-, five-, and seven-year notes in tandem with a batch of 5-year inflation protected securities. The coming week's round of government borrowing handily beats the previous record of $115 billion set in July. S
o far this year, the massive amount of supply Uncle Sam has pumped into the credit markets has been absorbed without much problem -- simply because there is a lot of cash out there looking for a safe home. If trading action in the equity market is wobbly next week - it is likely these government debt obligations will be well bid -- causing them to exert little, if any upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. As always there is a flip-side to every coin, weak bidding at next week's government debt sale will almost certainly leach into the mortgage market -- producing higher rates and notably lower prices. At this juncture, there is reason to consider this latter scenario to be a low probability outcome.
Next week's schedule of macro-economic data will almost surely draw more than a passing glance from mortgage investors - particularly Thursday's first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (8:30 a.m. ET) and the core personal consumption and expenditure component of the September Income and Spending data to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. The majority of economists expect economic growth during the third-quarter accelerated at a brisk 3.3% pace. Mortgage investors have already priced-in that forecast as well expectations the core rate of inflation as measured by the September personal consumption and expenditure index did not exceed 0.2%. Should the actual numbers match or fall below these consensus forecast values - look for these economic reports to have little, if any noticeably impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
Earlier this morning the National Association of Realtors reported existing homes sales - including single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops - jumped 9.4% higher last month. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, "Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to take a trade and buy another home." The Association's data shows first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate set of data shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September. Mortgage investors largely discounted the big surge in September existing home sales - reasoning the trajectory of sales will slip notably lower in the fourth-quarter following the expiration of the first-time home-buyer program at the end of November.
Stock market investors are continuing to make strong bets that corporate earnings will continue to "surprise" to the high side of expectations. The earnings season is still very young - with the majority of companies still due to turn in their third-quarter financial performance report cards. If these remaining companies successfully follow the current pattern of posting better-than-expected earnings -- stock markets will likely find sufficient justification continue to rally at the expense of fractionally higher mortgage interest rates.
On the other hand, if the remaining companies fail to solidly beat current earnings expectations, their stock price will likely begin to fall. The larger the number of under-performing companies (as compared to analysts' expectations) the stronger the likelihood stock markets will roll-over into a heavy sell-off - a condition that will tend to be strongly supportive of steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Improving stock market performance driven by better-than-expected corporate earnings and the imminent retreat of the Federal Reserve as a direct buyer of Treasury debt are the "one-two punch" behind this morning's price swoon = HIGHER RATES = in the mortgage market.
So far in this early part of the corporate earnings season financial performance results from American businesses have generally exceeded analysts expectations, feeding speculation that the economy overall is solidly on the road to recovery. That growing mindset among capital sources has undermined the safe haven appeal of government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - resulting in upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.
The upward pressure on mortgage interest rates is being compounded as the Fed moves through the final stages of their commitment to directly purchase $300 billion of government debt obligations. They have already spent $297 billion of the funding available for this program. After today's small acquisition, they are scheduled to make their last purchase under current program guidelines on Thursday, October 29th. The exit of a big checkbook buyer from the market place has inevitably put some downward pressure on prices today - but the overall impact of the Fed's retreat will almost certainly be short-lived as freely trade markets tend to seek their natural balance points pretty quickly following a disruption. Investors' memories tend to be pretty short.
In other news of the day the Mortgage Bankers of America said their seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, slid 13.7% lower during the week ended October 16th. Applications to buy a home, a tentative indicator of sales, dropped 7.6% lower from the previous week while refinance applications fell 16.8%. The MBA said borrowing costs on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, excluding fees, rose 0.05 percentage points from the previous week to average 5.07%. This was above the all-time low of 4.61% set in March, but well below the 6.28% level of a year ago.
So far in this early part of the corporate earnings season financial performance results from American businesses have generally exceeded analysts expectations, feeding speculation that the economy overall is solidly on the road to recovery. That growing mindset among capital sources has undermined the safe haven appeal of government debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities - resulting in upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.
The upward pressure on mortgage interest rates is being compounded as the Fed moves through the final stages of their commitment to directly purchase $300 billion of government debt obligations. They have already spent $297 billion of the funding available for this program. After today's small acquisition, they are scheduled to make their last purchase under current program guidelines on Thursday, October 29th. The exit of a big checkbook buyer from the market place has inevitably put some downward pressure on prices today - but the overall impact of the Fed's retreat will almost certainly be short-lived as freely trade markets tend to seek their natural balance points pretty quickly following a disruption. Investors' memories tend to be pretty short.
In other news of the day the Mortgage Bankers of America said their seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, slid 13.7% lower during the week ended October 16th. Applications to buy a home, a tentative indicator of sales, dropped 7.6% lower from the previous week while refinance applications fell 16.8%. The MBA said borrowing costs on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, excluding fees, rose 0.05 percentage points from the previous week to average 5.07%. This was above the all-time low of 4.61% set in March, but well below the 6.28% level of a year ago.
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